Opportunity knocks

I got a mail today from a great friend in the UK who among others helped bail me out when things got really rough here.  You need the occasional reminder of just how cool your real friends really are.  And how much you owe them beyond just cash.

In replying to him though, I began to list the opportunities I have in the pipeline and I was rocked by how good it all looks compared to even a month ago and if looked at in the light of, say, last Xmas then it's a stunning advance.

I have some paying work.  Enough to keep the wolf from the door at least by the looks of it.

But more importantly there are deals in the pipeline that are real and solidifying fast.  If 20% come off then all my financial and legal problems go away.  If 10% come off I can eat and put a roof over my head for a year.

We're establishing a slew of new businesses - consulting and training oriented, trading and broking and even the manufacture of a simple product in Malaysia.  There's even an investment fund in there if we can get our act together.  If effort were a measure of success...well eat your heart out Bill Gates. 

We have a strange economy here in Dubai.  There's massive government interference in licencing and bureaucratic nonsense but little actual regulation.  It's a pretty much free market economy - largely unfettered capitalism.  If you don't make it as a business you fold.  If you owe people money you go to jail.  Generally - unless you're a local of course.  Or the Government who are the worst payers and biggest debtors...but that's a whole other issue.  The important thing though is the  activity in our local market reflects the world as a whole pretty much unfiltered.  And it's getting better.

New businesses are starting and old ones recovering.

Real estate and hospitality are still a mess and real estate in particular is probably in for worse yet.  Hotel rates are still falling but more slowly and peak season is kicking in.

Rents have a way to fall yet.  I'm glad I don't depend on rent from apartments for my living!  I have a friend whose current rental income doesn't equal the service charge from the developer - Nakheel, a government entity in deep shit who doesn't understand that screwing over the landlords is destructive to its long term survival.

Final assessment?  Recovering but government needs to respond more openly and stop protecting its collective arse.  Help the economy as a whole and you'll all benefit.