Trust me...

28 August 2011

http://tinyurl.com/3m9y7qv

Well it's good to see the government and Met still have some sense left.  But they are not the only ones to fail to understand that censorship doesn't work nearly as effectively as proactive positive use of media.


It's the same with most repressive governments.  They really don't get that not only are their long term prospects for survival generally better but also their potential for accumulating personal wealth and ensuring personal survival massively improved by making the populace feel comfortable and apathetically compliant than by repressing them and stirring up dissent.


Dissenters - rebels - are highly committed.  But most people are not.  But if you make them feel unhappy, repressed, fearful and so on you give the dissenters something to work with.  Help 'em feel comfortable and lazy and they'll put up with all kinds of stuff that would help the dictators and governments do what they want.  Let 'em talk freeely.  Let 'em insult you if they want.  Sticks and stones...why would the dictator care about words.  He or She can use them just as effectively to win friends and influence people. 


Hugo Chavez knows that.  And it's really pissing off the Americans isn't it?


It's a really simple principle.  I'm stunned more don't use it.


That's why there's really so little chance of the Emiratis joining their bretheren in Bahrain or Yemen or even KSA in fomenting dissent.  They would have to give up too much.  And the rest of us are here as expats...to earn money or enjoy an easy life.  We're not going to be making a fuss anytime soon.


Places like Nigeria and South Africa could do well to learn that lesson.  And still the Pres. could live like an 18thC European Monarch if so desired!

16 August 2011

Ramadan and selfish driving

It's the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and here in Dubai we are fasting and
contemplating the universe.  Even among us non-Muslims there's a sense of
something special and we try to work ourselves into the national mindset.
Giving to charity, helping the poor and needy and generally being a good
human are a big part of the mood.  And so yesterday in a country plagued by
selfish and senseless driving I was horrified to see perhaps the worst
example yet of this kind of behavior made somehow worse by its being
Ramadan.

Two large fire engines, lights flashing, sirens blaring, were working their
way through heavy traffic coming up to a set of lights at a busy
intersection.  Where possible cars were (eventually) pulling to one side and
making space for them to come through.  As they approached the lights
several cars pulled aside leaving a clear space for them both to come
through on their mission and clear the lights quickly.  Just as they reached
the lights a Landcruiser containing a respectable looking middle aged couple
pulled out of the traffic queue in front of the leading fire engine and shot
through the lights accelerating rapidly.  The lights were red at the
time... This caused the leading  fire engine to brake suddenly and the
following truck to all but rear end the first.

Even though we are all used to seeing arrogant and incompetent driving every
day here I have to say this behaviour shocked me.  I also confess to feeling
a stab of very Ramadan inappropriate thought in hoping it was their house
that was burning.

30 December 2010

Driving...again

Today I witnessed the following:
  • Tailgating at 120KPH
  • Exiting from the left hand lane across 5 lanes at the last second at high speed
  • Lane weaving on the freeway 
  • Overtaking on the inside lane
  • Using the emergency lane to overtake
  • Speaking on the phone with one hand, holding a cigarette with the other and steering with the knees
  • Reading a document while driving at speed
  • Jumping a red light - by coming from behind the second car that had already stopped
  • Weaving round pedestrians already 1/2 way across the carriageway
Now this is all pretty routine stuff; I doubt a journey goes by anywhere in the country where you would not see all these behaviours and more.

But these were all POLICE cars.  What chance of change do we have if the police don't even try?

23 December 2010

Magic in 21st Century

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12060507

This BBC report is about children killed by their gullible and rather stupid parents using Alternative Medicines instead of proven and efficacious treatments from a proper doctor.  These parents, while probably not criminal in the usual sense, are though criminally responsible for the deaths of their children.  In today's world, in the first world, with universal education and good health care in most places, except the US, for even the poorest there is no excuse for this level of idiocy.

So why do people choose to believe in 'natural' therapies or alternative treatments?  Why are these felt to be more effective than drugs with years of testing and proof behind them?

Part of it is certainly because people  - ordinary people not scientifically trained - find anecdotal evidence more compelling than the statistics behind a full scale regulated double blind test in a laboratory.  You can't talk to the testers but you can talk to Aunt Mary about her friend who made the mircaculous recovery from terminal cancer by eschewing the very unpleasant high tech treatments her doctor offered in favour of a nice herbal tea and a homeopathic flower remedy.  Aunt Mary never mentions how her friend later died horribly and in pain after a brief period of remission...

And this dangerous farce gets government support too.  Of course it does it is cheaper than proper medical treatment and people seem happier with the results even when patients die unnecessarily.

I despair.

So I'm off for a session with my Shaman to see if he can bring my spirit back to health.

22 December 2010

Changes

It's coming up to Christmas and so far it looks like it's going to be little different from last year.  Despite massive optimism and boatloads of hard work none of our deals has yet turned into hard cash.

Ras al Khaimah came and went in a flurry of recriminations between the partners and left a bunch of unhappy people in the lurch.  Me included but what about the customers and internal clients we had built good relationships with?  It hurts to let them go.

The Al Khabeer training company also came and went.  Should have seen that earlier but I wasn't the only one who fell for it.  At least two people lost significant amounts of money in the process.  I had none to lose fortunately and was sufficiently suspicious from early on not to get too close.  Nonetheless there's the risk of losing a good new friendship with a good guy from KSA.  Hopefully he'll be back in the New Year and we can move on from that disaster.

And now we're looking to new possibilities - starting again but with lessons learned and new hopes all round.  A couple of commodity deals involving oil and diamonds are reaching critical stages; new businesses in insurance, security and economic development as well as political consulting look like they might make a splash. 

The new year comes with the same hope last year did but a lot more confidence that something will drop out the other side.

The critical point being that everyone is in the same boat here.  My story is repeated more or less similarly by all the expats - employed or  entrepreneurs alike.  Little new business was completed last year but the signs are good for '11.

There are downside indicators too for Dubai.  There's still far too many new properties being constructed, commercial and residential, given the numbers of empty completed offerings available.  People are still trying to hang on to the past and rents are still falling and landlords reluctant to let at current rates and instead they hang on, hoping for a recovery.  And some are still trying to persist with the old practice of a year's rent in advance.  Yet they wonder why their properties remain empty.  Jumeirah Beach Residence and Jumeirah Lakes Towers look like ghost towns at night - some long completed buildings showing only a handful of lights at night.

And rumours abound of another semi-state run enterprise going the same way as Nakheel and of huge personal defaults by senior members of the ruling family.  And the constant local cultural inability to be transparent about it.

And there's been a flurry of legislation making it tougher for expats, not least the reduction in the length of work permits/visas to  2 years.  Not to mention no sign of the long discussed end of indentured servitude in the form of 'Sponsorship" and stealth tax/state appropriation in the need for 51% local ownership of companies outside FreeZones.

I must say a relocation is looking more attractive every day.  Let's see if we can get some stability this year.  Personally and nationally.  Or maybe go to Bahrain or Sri Lanka on spec.

10 December 2010

I love Fridays

When I lived in the UK I made it a point, for most of my working life, never to work on a Friday.  Even if that meant working all weekend to keep up.  Though if I ever did work a weekend I never told anyone as I found that an air of wonder about my short working hours helped keep fee rates up and improve people's recall of the odd consultant they enjoyed hiring or the strangely valuable yet difficult employee they never quite got round to firing.

The thing is though, it always made Fridays seem special and my wife and I could often accomplish more fun and general good stuff on a Friday than most people over a whole vacation.

Now we live in the Middle East and in the Muslim world where Friday is a holy day.  Kinda like a Christian Sunday or Jewish Sabbath.  Every one sleeps in late, goes to the mosque, families hang out together, the world is generally quiet until quite late and there is not a lot of noisy traffic.  Until the evening, when it becomes party and shopping  time.  This works well because Saturday is also the weekend and people have the second day to recover.  Then back to work on Sunday.

Unless your clients, like most of mine, are in the US or EU.  When Sunday is their Friday.  Not much to do; so I don't often work Sundays. 

I've still got my Fridays off thought the special frisson of illicit goofing off is transferred to Sunday.  But it's odd, even after living here a good while I still feel ever so slightly guilty 'bout not working Friday, just like before.  It's my anchor.

Even though I earn my living helping companies and countries adapt to change I don't like it any more than anyone else.  It's all around me of course just as it's all around everyone else.  It's wholly unavoidable and yet omnipresent.  Get over it; get used to it. 

Which is where Friday comes in. 

About the best tool you have to deal with constant and accellerating change is an anchor.  Something that doesn't change; there's always something.  It might be your family, your kids or spouse.  It might be your home, your hobby, some aspect of your work or study, a hobby, a sport.  But something; there's always something.  Find it and cherish it so that as the economy makes a bumpy handcart trip to a hot climate you remain cool and collected and unjolted by the constant battering of reality.  While your industry rockets to infinity and beyond overnight you can still come back to something familiar every night. 

There will be something;  there's always something.  I've got Fridays.

27 November 2010

Trust me

So I nearly got conned.  If I hadn't already been broke I could have lost a lot of money.  Others did.  Dr Aaliyah is a real talent.  Smooth, persuasive, credible in short bursts.  She came up with what is in fact a really good idea - a training company focussed entirely on Arabs in general and Emiratis in particular.  There's a lot of focus here on Emiritisation and consequently there's a lot of money to be made.  And as yet not many exploiting the niche.

It doesn't take a lot of capital to start a small training company but it does take some.  There are licences to be acquired here and that means premises; there are staff to hire and marketing to be done.  You can start small and grow.

But the good doctor had 'plans' though it seems these plans never included paying for anything or anyone.  Suffice it to say that after some 4 months operation staff and contractors remain unpaid and licences un-obtained.  All of which is really sad because the sales team have secured business and are ready to run.

So the 'con'?  Look for investors, lots of small ones interested in being involved but not risking a big sum of money.  In this case she's discovered that AED250k or about $60k seems to bring a balance between being small enough for many people to risk and big enough to warrant the risks of being caught.  And it looks to me after a few months of being involved and two solid weeks of poking around where I should have poked long before that she's found around 6 or 7 suckers to stump up the money, sometimes in cash and always with nothing more than a signed document.  No official stamps, no registrations at the Dubai government, no basic due diligence by anyone.  It's The Producers translated to the desert except it's not funny.

Temptation and greed are odd things in that they overcome the most rational of people who don't want to see what's plainly visible.  A promise from a convincing speaker of your money back in a year and profits of 25% plus is close to being believable if you mentally squint. And when she included 25% of the equity it sealed the deal - several times.  Of course her 75% and 6 lots of 25% represents a mathematical problem in the real world.  But not if you slip in a decimal point on the documents - after the fact.

To the learning points then and it's a really simple set; one some Mr Madoff's victims should have considered too:

-  If it seems too good to be true then it probably is too good to be true
- Trust nothing, check everything; twice
- Everybody lies

Business is no place for *blind* faith.   Leave that for church.

15 November 2010

Pirates

I just finished reading The Pyrates - by George Macdonald Fraser, Hollywood stalwart and creator of the wonderful Flashman books based on the caddish character from Tom Brown's Schooldays.  It's funny and clever and thoroughly entertaining.  Everything a good pirate book or movie should be.  Errol Flynn would have been totally at home as indeed would the Dread Pirate Roberts.

Then this morning I read in the papers about Rachel And Paul Chandler who've been held for a little over a year by Somali pirates and saw their gaunt and strained looking photos.  And it made me realise what an odd species we are.

We find boat thieves exciting and dashing.  Big time criminals  - Bonnie and Clyde, Capone, any number of Russian oligarchs, the American Robber Barons of the 19th & early 20th centuries - become heroes and the subject of movies not far short of a hagiography.

But when was the last time you went to a movie about the loveable and amusing social security cheat who held down a below minimum wage cash only job and claimed unemployment benefit at the same time.  To feed her kids and keep a roof over their heads?  Or the illegal housemaid working a 15 hour day seven days a week in order to send cash home and support the family.  I have seen government sponsored advertisements urging me to rat them out though.

But I don't remember seeing any government supported advertising on how we're going to rid the seas of the pirates.  Though I did see a very lighthearted story today about Max Hardberger a man who makes his living repossessing stolen vessels from the pirates.  And mostly not glamorous armed cutthroats either but much more often from the clutches of crooked officials and shady brokers.

What I didn't read about though was the hardship caused to the crews and the ship owners whose ships are stolen.  The story was more about the thrill of the chase.

I realise I'm just an aging hippy buddhist with a soft spot for the underdog.  But I don't care.  That's where everyone's feeling should lie.

The name says it all "cutthroat" is not a cool epithet.  It's a blood stained job description and we should not forget that. Ever.

08 November 2010

Travelling light

I'm doing some pro bono work for a thing called the Emirates Travellers' Festival.  The ETs are a group of youngish Emiratis who travel the world by Land Cruiser mostly, going to difficult and interesting places and educating people about the UAE and Arab and Muslim culture and doing occasional good works.  And learning and learning and learning along the way.

And now these guys are working on setting up a Festival to be a celebration of Travelling - for whatever reason be it thrill seeking or charitable works or education or some combination.  It's to be a chance for people from all over the world to share and enjoy.

Today I was interviewing Sheikh Awad about this.  He's the driving force behind both the Emirates Travellers themselves and the Festival though he's got himself a veritable army of helpers and advisors. 

He's a genuine enthusiast.  He did a piece to camera, impromptu, in Arabic and English extolling the virtues to be gained from meeting different cultures and seeing different places.  It came from the heart and just drips with the enthusiasm and joy you can see in his eyes.

But what comes across so strongly in conversation is how much he wants to share these experiences and the learnings.  It's all been wholly positive.  Now, he mentions in passing that some places were difficult and risky but I'm made to swear I won't mention which places.  Not from fear on his part but from a desire not to put anyone off from trying if they want to.

And I also come across a trait I see in too few people here - expat or otherwise.  He must have told me a dozen times in the conversation that we have to make careful plans but in the end we have to "...just try it...get started and get on..."  He's happy to pull it together and dot i's and cross t's but just keen to get on. "Take a few risks; not stupid ones but some or you'll get nowhere".  It's nearly a mantra.

I've also been teaching business people about Entrereneurialism and that sums it up perfectly.  The managers I've been working with often understand intellectually but over here the culture is not one of taking risk.  Remember most of our workforce is expatriate and if they cross their bosses they can be fired and sent home at pretty much a moments notice.  That fear engenders neither any climate of risk taking nor does it make providing real customer focussed service possible.  Because staff are more frightened of the boss than they are concerned for the customer.  After all the customer can't have them deported.

This produces a badly skewed work culture where intelligent people will not challenge patently foolish instructions, where filling in the appropriate chit is more important than problem solving and where even the smallest risk is avoided because of the potential for disproportionate punishment.

It's REALLY holding back our development.  Somehow we have to remove the fear and replace it with pride.  A revision of visa rules might be all that's needed to get things rolling.  Perhaps coupled with the carrot of possible permanent residence if not citizenship for those who show the most commitment.

28 October 2010

Heading to ...well to what?

I have realised this week that although I am very good at what I do for a living I don't really like it any more.  I've been an entrepreneur and consultant for so long that I had really stopped thinking about it.  But I have realised - finally - that the reason I have found it so hard to get work in the last year has nothing to do with the economy.  It has everything to do with not having fun anymore.

Those who know me well know how hard I can work and how much energy I will put into something interesting.  They also know how little I will do if bored.  It's not laziness - though it can look like that to a third party.  It is simply that the energy required to do the crap is greater than any financial or emotional reward coming back.

What brought on this bout of existential doubt was my involvement in a project to start a training company.  The core concept is interesting.  To train young Emiratis in the real skills they need to make a success in the business world outside of the very sheltered public sector.

But the reality is less interesting because to get set up involves dealing with a vast bureaucratic labyrinth and an even vaster cultural divide coupled with a need to do much more trivial and pragmatic deals just to get enough cash to survive.  It involves begging for funding and doing deals with people I don't really like or approve of.  It involves letting someone else, again, have control of my destiny.

And I'm fed up both with the bureaucracy and the permanent lack of cash in start-up situations.  I'm fed up with scrabbling for every penny just to survive another day and I'm fed up with never having to deal with the problems associated with successful businesses. 

So I'm going to start looking for a business that I can run, hands on on a daily basis, that has some major element of hospitqality involved and is already doing ok.  And I'm going to make it do well!  No more rescues, no more start ups and no more dodgy 'partner' driven deals.  Buy something and make it better.

I want a small boutique hotel in Sri Lanka or Costa Rica.  Ideas?  Connections?